Research
Work in Progress
The Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index: Mapping Global (Co-)occurrence of Climate and Conflict Risk
Daniel Mittermaier, Simon Merschroth, Cornelia Auer, Tobias Bohne, Stefano Ferri, Vanessa Gottwick, Sidney Michelini, Sana Slouma, , and Barbora Šedová.
Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data
Faniry A. Razakason, , Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann.
Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using Tree-Based Ensembles to Estimate Probability Distributions of Future Conflict
Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer, and .
Everyday Smartphone Behaviors Predict Life Outcomes
Jan Digutsch, Larissa Sust, Ramona Schoedel, Markus Bühner, Timo Kevin Koch, Maximilian Bergmann, Pietro Alessandro Aluffi, , and Clemens Stachl.
Peer-Reviewed
Unsupervised Detection of Building Destruction during War from Publicly Available Radar Satellite Imagery
, Qi Zhang, Paul W. Thurner, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Göran Kauermann. PNAS Nexus, 4(12), pgaf367.
Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Nonparametric Smoothing Approach
, Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 189(3), 1428–1447.
Conflict Forecasting Using Remote Sensing Data: An Application to the Syrian Civil War
, Paul W. Thurner, Brittany I. Davidson, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Göran Kauermann. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 373–391.
Online Signals of Extremist Mobilization
Olivia Brown, Laura G. E. Smith, Brittany I. Davidson, , and Adam Joinson. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 52(1), 70–89.
Non-parametric smoothing for the diffusion of armed conflict
, Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. Proceedings of the 38th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, 259.
TweEvent: A Dataset of Twitter Messages about Events in the Ukraine Conflict
Samyo Rode-Hasinger, Matthias Häberle, , Anna Kruspe, and Xiao Xiang Zhu. Proceedings of ISCRAM 2023, 407–416.
Factorized Structured Regression for Large-Scale Varying Coefficient Models
David Rügamer, Andreas Bender, Simon Wiegrebe, , Bernd Bischl, Christian L. Müller, and Clemens Stachl. ECML PKDD 2022, LNCS 13717, 20–35.
For a complete and continuously updated record, visit Google Scholar.