Research

Work in Progress

Preprint 2026

The Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index: Mapping Global (Co-)occurrence of Climate and Conflict Risk

Daniel Mittermaier, Simon Merschroth, Cornelia Auer, Tobias Bohne, Stefano Ferri, Vanessa Gottwick, Sidney Michelini, Sana Slouma, Daniel Racek, and Barbora Šedová.

Preprint 2026

The Digital Authoritarian: Behavioral Patterns Collected via Smartphones Are Linked to Authoritarian Tendencies

Timo K. Koch, Sanaz Talaifar, Daniel Racek, Jan Digutsch, Pietro Alessandro Aluffi, Ramona Schoedel, and Clemens Stachl.

Preprint 2026

Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data

Faniry A. Razakason, Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann.

Preprint 2025

Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using Tree-Based Ensembles to Estimate Probability Distributions of Future Conflict

Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer, and Daniel Racek.

Preprint 2025

Everyday Smartphone Behaviors Predict Life Outcomes

Jan Digutsch, Larissa Sust, Ramona Schoedel, Markus Bühner, Timo Kevin Koch, Maximilian Bergmann, Pietro Alessandro Aluffi, Daniel Racek, and Clemens Stachl.

Peer-Reviewed

Journal Article 2025

Unsupervised Detection of Building Destruction during War from Publicly Available Radar Satellite Imagery

Daniel Racek, Qi Zhang, Paul W. Thurner, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Göran Kauermann. PNAS Nexus, 4(12), pgaf367.

Journal Article 2025

Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Nonparametric Smoothing Approach

Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 189(3), 1428–1447.

Conference Proceedings 2025

A Geoparsing Pipeline for Multilingual Social Media Posts from Ukraine

Maxim Mironov, Alexander Marquard, Daniel Racek, Christian Heumann, Paul W. Thurner, and Matthias Aßenmacher. GeoExT at ECIR, 6–17.

Journal Article 2024

The Russian War in Ukraine Increased Ukrainian Language Use on Social Media

Daniel Racek, Brittany I. Davidson, Paul W. Thurner, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Göran Kauermann. Communications Psychology, 2, Article 1.

Journal Article 2024

Conflict Forecasting Using Remote Sensing Data: An Application to the Syrian Civil War

Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner, Brittany I. Davidson, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Göran Kauermann. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 373–391.

Journal Article 2024

Online Signals of Extremist Mobilization

Olivia Brown, Laura G. E. Smith, Brittany I. Davidson, Daniel Racek, and Adam Joinson. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 52(1), 70–89.

Conference Proceedings 2024

Non-parametric smoothing for the diffusion of armed conflict

Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. Proceedings of the 38th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, 259.

Journal Article 2023

Platform-Controlled Social Media APIs Threaten Open Science

Brittany I. Davidson, Darja Wischerath, Daniel Racek, Douglas A. Parry, Emily Godwin, Joanne Hinds, Dirk van der Linden, Jonathan F. Roscoe, Laura Ayravainen, and Alicia G. Cork. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(12), 2054–2057.

Conference Proceedings 2023

TweEvent: A Dataset of Twitter Messages about Events in the Ukraine Conflict

Samyo Rode-Hasinger, Matthias Häberle, Daniel Racek, Anna Kruspe, and Xiao Xiang Zhu. Proceedings of ISCRAM 2023, 407–416.

Conference Proceedings 2022

Factorized Structured Regression for Large-Scale Varying Coefficient Models

David Rügamer, Andreas Bender, Simon Wiegrebe, Daniel Racek, Bernd Bischl, Christian L. Müller, and Clemens Stachl. ECML PKDD 2022, LNCS 13717, 20–35.

For a complete and continuously updated record, visit Google Scholar.